Unrest in Burundi: Ten Things you need to know

1. Independence

Burundi got its independence from Belgium in 1962. However since the time of independence, Burundi has been plagued by tension between the usually-dominant Tutsi minority and the Hutu majority. The ethnic violence sparked off in 1994 made Burundi the scene of one of Africa's most intractable conflicts.

2. Civil War

In 1972, Hutu organisations carried out systematic attacks on ethnic Tutsis with the declared intent of annihilating the whole group. The Tutsi-dominated military regime responded with large-scale reprisals targeting Hutus. The estimates of the casualties of these killings are said to exceed 100,000 and thousands of asylum-seekers fled to Tanzania and Rwanda to escape the violence. After elections in 1993, Melchior Ndadaye became the first democratically elected Hutu head of state, leading a pro-Hutu government. In October 1993, however, he was assassinated, setting off another round of violence which is estimated to have killed nearly 300,000 people.

3. Economic Stauts

Burundi is a landlocked, resource-deprived country with an underdeveloped manufacturing sector. The economy is predominantly agricultural which accounts for over 30% of GDP and employs more than 90% of the population. Burundi's primary exports are coffee and tea, which account for 90% of foreign exchange earnings, though exports are a relatively small share of GDP. Burundi's export earnings - and its ability to pay for imports - rests primarily on weather conditions and international coffee and tea prices. Burundi's GDP grew around 4% annually in 2006-13. Burundi heavily depends on aid from bilateral and multilateral donors - foreign aid represents 42% of Burundi's national income, the second highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa.

4. Population

Burundi's population in 2014 was estimated to be 10,395,931. Out of this more than 90% were between the ages 0-54. Ethnically the population has 85% Hutu (Bantu), 14%Tutsi (Hamitic), Twa (Pygmy) 1%, Europeans 3,000, South Asians 2,000.

5. Current President

Current President Pierre Nkurunziza trained as a sports teacher is the first president to be chosen in democratic elections since the start of Burundi's civil war in 1994. He was selected as president by parliamentarians in August 2005 after his Force for the Defence of Democracy (FDD) won parliamentary elections a few weeks earlier. He was re-elected in June 2010 presidential polls. The vote was boycotted by the opposition, which complained of fraud in the earlier local elections.

6. Current Violence

The present conflict in Burundi started with President Pierre Nkurunziza planning to run for a third term as president in the coming election in June. Crowds have taken to the streets and clashed with police for almost two weeks, saying the president's plans violate the Constitution and the Arusha Accords, a peace deal that ended an ethnically charged civil war in 2005. In a televised speech, Mr. Nkurunziza told Burundians that if elected for a third term in June, it would be his last. Protests are taking an increasing toll, with at least 13 dead and 216 wounded since the end of April 2015.

7. What does the constitution say?

Under the constitution of Burundi, the president can only be elected for two terms. However the constitutional court has held that President Nkurunziza can run for a third terms since first term does not count as he was appointed by parliament. Civil society organisations and the opposition argue that any interpretation of the constitution must be done within the framework of the Arusha agreement that limits all presidential mandates to two terms.

8. The Army's Stand

The army has been neutral so far in the conflict. It has regularly come between the police and demonstrators to avoid further clashes and the protesters believe the soldiers are neutral. General Prime Niyongabo, the army Chief of Staff said the military "remains and will remain a republican and loyalist army that is respectful of the laws and rules of Burundi and of those who govern it".

9. Statement by the Africa Union
The Africa Union has expressed its concerns on the current conflict and warned the Burundi leadership that not respecting the constitution would have consequences. In a recent interview AU Commission chair, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, said ‘conditions [in Burundi] are not conducive for a vote’. The Commission chair will also attend a summit in Dar es Selam, Tanzania to discuss the situation in Burundi. Meanwhile, the AU High-Level delegation, comprising former Togolese Prime Minister Edem Kodjo and Professor Ibrahima Fall of Senegal, is conducting consultations with the Burundian stakeholders.

10. Implications on Regional Security
The recent violence in Burundi invites a prospect of a wider regional crisis. Due to their proximity, shared colonial history and similar social and ethnic structures, Burundi and Rwanda have historically been destabilised by cross-border unrest. Should Burundi erupt into full-scale war, chances are high that Rwanda would intervene. That could mobilise anti-Rwanda elements in the region, including the Congo-based Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. Eventually, other regional forces could be dragged into a conflict.

 This article was first published on http://www.ipss-addis.org/new-ipss/news-events/unrest_in_burundi-_ten_things_you_need_to_know_/